Spring Festival is approaching, weaving, bomb business, the year-end stocking is also a more important choice. However, after reviewing the market after the Spring Festival in 2017, there is always a feeling of chilling. After all, should this end of the large stocking it? What is the difference between the overall market situation of last year and this year? Xiaobian today to do a simple comb.

Data PK!

Price comparison

As a whole, the prices of polyester products have risen to some extent over the same period of last year, which is at a high level since 2017. Two of the more obvious are the recent gains in crude oil and semi-light PET, which has been boosted by the low profit margin.

2. Profit comparison

Cash flow, compared with the same period last year, except PTA and semi-PET, the rest of the products are lower than the same period last year. (It is important to note that cash flows of PET, POY and FDY have been declining significantly since the beginning of the Chinese New Year holiday from January 18 to January 26 due to rising polyester raw materials at the end of last year.)

However, comparing the current cash flow with the average level from 2017 to the present, we can see that both POY, FDY and DTY are below the annual average. In particular, there is a clear gap in POY.

3. Inventory comparison

Inventory point of view, the overall same as last year, POY are located at a relatively low level of 5 days, FDY slightly lower than last year, but also in the normal low level, DTY slightly higher than last year, in 25 days.

4. Maintenance comparison

According to Golden Link statistics, the Spring Festival last year, a total of 7.333 million tons of polyester plant overhaul device in the vicinity, up to now, polyester plant installation overhaul efforts have been higher than the same period last year, the downstream wave of the last wave of procurement after the end of the mainstream polyester factory according to their own Comprehensive consideration of orders and inventory, the device maintenance efforts will be gradually clear, this year is expected polyester plant overhaul efforts or in the 900-1000 tons.

Last year's plummeting market will repeat it?

From a purely data perspective, we can only see some basic market conditions, and there is still a time lag between the Spring Festival and the current one month. To analyze whether the slump in the market last year will repeat itself, we need to combine the current market conditions with a deeper analysis of some of the incentives that led to the slump last year.

Recalling the market after last Spring Festival, the initiator is polyester raw materials down. Well, here you need to discuss the reasons for the fall of high polyester raw materials after the Spring Festival last year.

Xiaobian personally believe that although there are some objective factors which include the backlog of some inventories during the Spring Festival, the expected disappointment of the large-capped ethylene glycol and the drop in costs, the most important impact lies in the changes in the mindset of market participants. During the period from the third quarter of 2016 to the beginning of the Spring Festival, no matter whether it is a chemical fiber industrial chain or the rest of the commodities, all of them have interpreted a period of vigorous rally. But when the market arrives at a node, everyone starts to calm down and think about it: Is the economic environment in China and the world really good enough to bring about such a wave of market? Terminal needs to digest it?

Hold is the "prosperity" or "bubble burst" suspicion, the market failed to continue after the crazy! So what is the current situation?

According to the CAS prediction center report, China's economy is expected to show a steady growth trend by 2018, pointing out that China has entered a new normalcy of development and expects GDP growth of 6.7% for the full year. In the global economic growth accelerated, OPEC crude oil production reduction benchmark scenario, the international commodity prices in 2018 is expected to rise. In 2018, the average price of CRB commodity futures will be around 194 points, up about 5% over the same period of last year. It is estimated that WTI crude oil price will mainly fluctuate between 54-66 US dollars / barrel in 2018, the average price will be around 60 US dollars / barrel, up by 18% over the same period of last year.

In addition, the pessimistic outlook for early 2017 has been falsified in terms of the digestibility of textile terminals, while real estate, population growth and export issues need to be considered in addition. First of all, as far as real estate policies are concerned, the restriction policy has obviously suppressed the overall market. However, it needs to be clarified that at present, the ultimate goal of China's real estate policy is to allow the market to develop steadily rather than suppress it, including the recent hire purchase The same rights, in essence, are also adjusting the housing structure, and may allow the rental market to be erupted. Secondly, it is the population problem in China. The growth effect on the demand for textiles brought about by the "two-child" policy has gradually emerged. It is expected to maintain a sustained growth in 2018. Finally, the issue of exports is affected by the policy of the Belt and Road initiative. In the future, the export channels for the products of the Chinese textile industry will undoubtedly be more extensive. It is foreseeable that the steady and favorable net exports will be forecasted.

So macroscopically, polyester raw material supply and demand problems also have to mention. In 2018, PTA ushers in a new capacity-free period. However, it should be noted that with the re-production of equipment such as Huabin and Xianglu, there will be a marked increase in output. In the meantime, 2018 will be the same Polyester production capacity of a large number of new year, and the current PTA inventories in the low, new capacity put into operation within a certain period of time will also be used to fill the cash gap.

Overall, after one year of falsification, the pessimistic mood in the market eased. The possibility of polyester raw materials plunging again will be less than that of last year.